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Angers vs Montpellier — Ligue 1 2026

Angers
Angers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
S. Bahoken 72'
S. Mavididi 47'
4/4/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 31Stade Raymond-Kopa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Angers35%
×Draw25%
Montpellier40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angers
1.35
Montpellier
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

creates per match

Angers
0.97
Montpellier
1.41

allows per match

Angers
1.50
Montpellier
1.74

finishing

Angers+0.03on par
Montpellier+0.79scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angers ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Angers or draw
60%
Angers or Montpellier
75%
Draw or Montpellier
65%

Winning margin

Angers wins by 2+
16%
Montpellier wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Angers 1+ goals
74%
Angers 2+ goals
39%
Angers 3+ goals
15%
Montpellier 1+ goals
77%
Montpellier 2+ goals
43%
Montpellier 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Angers (draw refunded)
47%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angers at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Montpellier away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.74 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angers attack 0.97 + Montpellier defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.35

Montpellier attack 1.41 + Angers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Angers scores more
35%
level
25%
Montpellier scores more
40%

Montpellier at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. FulginiAngersAngers · F
7.5

Match Events

30'
Salomon Sambia
47'
S. Mavididi
49'
Pierrick Capelle
65'
L. Diony← I. Amadou
72'
S. Bahoken
77'
M. Ristić← N. Cozza
77'
D. Le Tallec← J. Chotard
85'
N. Fatar← A. Bobichon
85'
S. Wahi← S. Mavididi

Possession

62%Angers

Shots

14Angers

Pass accuracy

54%Angers

Statistics

AngersMontpellier
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots8
4Corners0
15Fouls9
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target3
5Off Target5
5Blocked0
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
618Total Passes362
526Accurate Passes264
85%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Ligue 1: Angers 1–1 Montpellier

Angers and Montpellier drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on April 4, 2021.

Goals: S. Mavididi (47'), S. Bahoken (72').

Angers controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Angers.