Monterrey 3–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

3/4/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Monterrey51%

×Draw25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Monterrey

1.65

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.05

Monterrey creates 57% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 151 away

1.75

creates per match

1.13

0.97

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Monterrey

1.75

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Monterrey

0.97

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

76%

Monterrey or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

75%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

81%

Monterrey 2+ goals

49%

Monterrey 3+ goals

23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

65%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

28%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.65

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more

51%

level

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

24%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff