Monterrey 2–0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

D. Vergara 53', 2'

8/1/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 151+ matches

Monterrey51%

×Draw25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Monterrey

1.65

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.06

Monterrey creates 56% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 151 away

1.76

creates per match

1.13

0.99

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

76%

Monterrey or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

75%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

49%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

81%

Monterrey 2+ goals

49%

Monterrey 3+ goals

23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

65%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

68%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.65

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Monterrey scores more

51%

level

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

24%

Monterrey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Vergara

Monterrey · M

8.7

Match Events

2'

D. Vergara

33'

Alan Mozo

46'

Gerardo Moreno

53'

D. Vergara↳ E. Andrada

58'

S. Saucedo← J. Rodríguez

58'

G. Torres← Higor

64'

Gabriel Torres

65'

Á. Zapata← V. Janssen

67'

E. Montejano← Rogério

71'

J. Alvarado← D. Vergara

77'

M. Kranevitter← A. González

77'

K. Hernández← J. Campbell

79'

L. López← J. Galindo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreyU.N.A.M.

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots5

1Corners3

7Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots5

3On Target3

9Off Target1

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

387Total Passes395

312Accurate Passes322

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4