Monterrey 3–0 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santos Laguna

11/9/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Monterrey56%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.03

Monterrey

1.81

Santos Laguna

1.03

Monterrey creates 76% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 142 away

1.75

creates per match

1.09

0.97

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Monterrey

1.75

Santos Laguna

1.09

allows per match

Monterrey

0.97

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

79%

Monterrey or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

44%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

31%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

84%

Monterrey 2+ goals

54%

Monterrey 3+ goals

27%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

64%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

28%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

72%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Monterrey scores more

56%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

21%

Monterrey at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff