Monterrey 5–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Monterrey

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Santos Laguna

D. Pabón 85', 2'

V. Janssen 70' (pen)

G. Arteaga 54' (OG)

N. Sánchez 8'

E. Castillo 45+3'

J. Furch 23'

11/29/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Monterrey56%

×Draw23%

Santos Laguna21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonterreyExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.04

Monterrey

1.82

Santos Laguna

1.04

Monterrey creates 75% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 142 away

1.76

creates per match

1.10

0.99

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Monterrey

1.76

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Monterrey

0.99

Santos Laguna

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw

79%

Monterrey or Santos Laguna

77%

Draw or Santos Laguna

44%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+

32%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals

84%

Monterrey 2+ goals

54%

Monterrey 3+ goals

27%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

65%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

28%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)

72%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.82

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Monterrey scores more

56%

level

23%

Santos Laguna scores more

21%

Monterrey at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

D. Pabón

Monterrey · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

D. Pabón↳ C. Rodríguez

8'

N. Sánchez↳ D. Pabón

23'

J. Furch↳ H. Rodríguez

45+3'

E. Castillo↳ J. Furch

50'

Dorlan Pabón

50'

Brian Lozano

54'

G. ArteagaOwn goal

64'

Diego Valdés

70'

V. JanssenPenalty

77'

79'

81'

85'

86'

J. Gónzalez← L. Vangioni

88'

Á. Zaldívar← V. Janssen

88'

J. Vázquez← F. Gorriarán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonterreySantos

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots19

6Corners8

14Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots19

7On Target6

8Off Target6

2Blocked7

9Inside Box13

8Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

241Total Passes342

142Accurate Passes242

59%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0