Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monterrey vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Monterrey
Monterreyadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
R. Funes Mori 60'
11/29/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Monterrey55%
×Draw23%
Santos Laguna22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
1.81
Santos Laguna
1.04

Monterrey creates 74% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 144 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.76
Santos Laguna
1.10

allows per match

Monterrey
0.99
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
78%
Monterrey or Santos Laguna
77%
Draw or Santos Laguna
45%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
31%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
84%
Monterrey 2+ goals
54%
Monterrey 3+ goals
27%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
65%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
28%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
72%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.76 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Monterrey defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Monterrey scores more
55%
level
23%
Santos Laguna scores more
22%

Monterrey at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
N. SánchezMonterreyMonterrey · D
7.8

Match Events

60'
R. Funes Mori↳ C. Rodríguez
64'
E. Orrantía← J. Rodríguez
72'
E. Cetré← A. Preciado
74'
Hugo Nervo
80'
A. Hurtado← D. Pabón
82'
G. Madrigal← R. Funes Mori
85'
E. Cantú← R. Pizarro

Possession

48%Monterrey

Shots

15Monterrey

Pass accuracy

50%Monterrey

Statistics

MonterreySantos
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots11
4Corners2
9Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
5On Target4
8Off Target4
2Blocked3
10Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
393Total Passes433
319Accurate Passes348
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Monterrey vs Santos Laguna

Monterrey beat Santos Laguna 1-0 in Liga MX on November 29, 2018.

Goals: R. Funes Mori (60').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Monterrey.