Monterey Bay II 1–2 Marin: Result & Stats

Monterey Bay II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Marin

7/13/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 19Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Monterey Bay II48%

×Draw22%

Marin30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monterey Bay IIExpected goals in this matchMarin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.50

Monterey Bay II

1.93

Marin

1.50

Monterey Bay II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 17 away

1.10

creates per match

1.71

1.30

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Monterey Bay II

1.10

Marin

1.71

allows per match

Monterey Bay II

1.30

Marin

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Marin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay II ↓

Marin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Monterey Bay II or draw

70%

Monterey Bay II or Marin

78%

Draw or Marin

52%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+

27%

Marin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals

85%

Monterey Bay II 2+ goals

57%

Monterey Bay II 3+ goals

30%

Marin 1+ goals

78%

Marin 2+ goals

44%

Marin 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)

61%

Marin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay II at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Marin away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay II attack 1.10 + Marin defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.93

Marin attack 1.71 + Monterey Bay II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monterey Bay II scores more

48%

level

22%

Marin scores more

30%

Monterey Bay II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monterey Bay II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff