Marin 2–2 Monterey Bay II: Result & Stats

Marin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Monterey Bay II

6/11/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 7San Rafael High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Marin35%

×Draw22%

Monterey Bay II44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarinExpected goals in this matchMonterey Bay II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.97

Marin

1.75

Monterey Bay II

1.97

Monterey Bay II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

1.29

2.65

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Marin

1.50

Monterey Bay II

1.29

allows per match

Marin

2.65

Monterey Bay II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marin+0.00on par

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marin ↓

Monterey Bay II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Marin or draw

56%

Marin or Monterey Bay II

78%

Draw or Monterey Bay II

65%

Winning margin

Marin wins by 2+

18%

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Marin 1+ goals

83%

Marin 2+ goals

52%

Marin 3+ goals

25%

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals

86%

Monterey Bay II 2+ goals

58%

Monterey Bay II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Marin (draw refunded)

45%

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

Monterey Bay II away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marin attack 1.50 + Monterey Bay II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Monterey Bay II attack 1.29 + Marin defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marin scores more

35%

level

22%

Monterey Bay II scores more

44%

Monterey Bay II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Monterey Bay II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff