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Monterey Bay II vs Marin — USL League Two 2026

Monterey Bay II
Monterey Bay II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marin
Marin
7/11/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 19Rabobank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monterey Bay II57%
×Draw20%
Marin23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay II
2.34
Marin
1.46

Monterey Bay II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay II
1.93
Marin
1.71

allows per match

Monterey Bay II
1.20
Marin
2.76

finishing

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par
Marin+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay II ↓

Marin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Monterey Bay II or draw
77%
Monterey Bay II or Marin
80%
Draw or Marin
43%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+
36%
Marin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals
90%
Monterey Bay II 2+ goals
67%
Monterey Bay II 3+ goals
41%
Marin 1+ goals
77%
Marin 2+ goals
43%
Marin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)
71%
Marin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay II at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Marin away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay II attack 1.93 + Marin defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.34

Marin attack 1.71 + Monterey Bay II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Monterey Bay II scores more
57%
level
20%
Marin scores more
23%

Monterey Bay II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Monterey Bay II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterey Bay II vs Marin

Monterey Bay II beat Marin 3-2 in USL League Two on July 11, 2024.

The match was played at Rabobank Stadium in Salinas, California.