Montana 0–0 Ludogorets II: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ludogorets II

4/12/2025

Second League · Round 31Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Montana51%

×Draw27%

Ludogorets II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.85

Montana

1.45

Ludogorets II

0.85

Montana creates 71% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 115 away

1.52

creates per match

0.94

0.77

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Montana

1.52

Ludogorets II

0.94

allows per match

Montana

0.77

Ludogorets II

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montana+0.00on par

Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Ludogorets II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montana or draw

78%

Montana or Ludogorets II

73%

Draw or Ludogorets II

49%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

26%

Ludogorets II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

77%

Montana 2+ goals

42%

Montana 3+ goals

18%

Ludogorets II 1+ goals

57%

Ludogorets II 2+ goals

21%

Ludogorets II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

70%

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.77 · 86 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.52 + Ludogorets II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ludogorets II attack 0.94 + Montana defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montana scores more

51%

level

27%

Ludogorets II scores more

22%

Montana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

S. Kamenov

46'

M. Sorakov← V. Dobrev

48'

K. Iliev

51'

Pedro Henrique

60'

I. Berete← V. Tsekov

63'

F. Gigov← H. Kelyovluev

63'

R. Ivanov← E. Syrov

78'

Y. Yordanov← P. Kirev

81'

K. Dimitrov

82'

P. Atanasov← S. Kamenov

86'

E. Ekele← D. Dinev

88'

A. Popov← A. Marinov

90+2'

D. Hristov

Montana

Ludogorets

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Kalpakov

46'▲M. Sorakov←▼V. Dobrev

60'▲I. Berete←▼V. Tsekov

82'▲P. Atanasov←▼S. Kamenov

86'▲E. Ekele←▼D. Dinev

Montana substitutes

SorakovBereteAtanasovEkeleTaskovSlavchevKirilovSimeonovKouakou

Manager: Z. Sirakov

63'▲F. Gigov←▼H. Kelyovluev

63'▲R. Ivanov←▼E. Syrov

78'▲Y. Yordanov←▼P. Kirev

88'▲A. Popov←▼A. Marinov

Ludogorets II substitutes

GigovIvanovYordanovPopovLukanovIvanovTodorovHabilStoimenov