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Montana vs Ludogorets II — Second League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
8/14/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 5Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Montana53%
×Draw26%
Ludogorets II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.50
Ludogorets II
0.83

Montana creates 81% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 131 away

creates per match

Montana
1.59
Ludogorets II
0.93

allows per match

Montana
0.73
Ludogorets II
1.41

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Ludogorets II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Ludogorets II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
79%
Montana or Ludogorets II
74%
Draw or Ludogorets II
47%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
27%
Ludogorets II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
78%
Montana 2+ goals
44%
Montana 3+ goals
19%
Ludogorets II 1+ goals
56%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
20%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
72%
Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Ludogorets II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Ludogorets II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ludogorets II attack 0.93 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Montana scores more
53%
level
26%
Ludogorets II scores more
21%

Montana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Montana 3–2 Ludogorets II

Montana beat Ludogorets II 3-2 in Second League on August 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.