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Ludogorets II vs Montana — Second League 2018

Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Montana
Montana
5/21/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Ludogorets II41%
×Draw27%
Montana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets II
1.34
Montana
1.14

Ludogorets II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 96 away

creates per match

Ludogorets II
1.84
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Ludogorets II
1.05
Montana
0.85

finishing

Ludogorets II+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets II ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ludogorets II or draw
68%
Ludogorets II or Montana
73%
Draw or Montana
59%

Winning margin

Ludogorets II wins by 2+
19%
Montana wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ludogorets II 1+ goals
74%
Ludogorets II 2+ goals
39%
Ludogorets II 3+ goals
15%
Montana 1+ goals
68%
Montana 2+ goals
32%
Montana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets II (draw refunded)
57%
Montana (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.05 · 128 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.85 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets II attack 1.84 + Montana defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.34

Montana attack 1.22 + Ludogorets II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ludogorets II scores more
41%
level
27%
Montana scores more
32%

Ludogorets II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ludogorets II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ludogorets II 3–2 Montana

Ludogorets II beat Montana 3-2 in Second League on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.