Montana 0–3 Ludogorets: Result & Stats

Montana

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Ludogorets

I. Chochev 45'

K. Duah 43'

O. Verdon 18'

3/9/2026

First League · Round 25Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Montana17%

×Draw25%

Ludogorets59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontanaExpected goals in this matchLudogorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.63

Montana

0.73

Ludogorets

1.63

Ludogorets creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

0.75

creates per match

1.66

1.60

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Montana

0.75

Ludogorets

1.66

allows per match

Montana

1.60

Ludogorets

0.72

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Montana-0.32scores less

Ludogorets+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Ludogorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw

41%

Montana or Ludogorets

75%

Draw or Ludogorets

83%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+

5%

Ludogorets wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals

52%

Montana 2+ goals

17%

Montana 3+ goals

4%

Ludogorets 1+ goals

80%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

48%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)

22%

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.60 · 7 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.75 + Ludogorets defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.73

Ludogorets attack 1.66 + Montana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Montana scores more

17%

level

25%

Ludogorets scores more

59%

Ludogorets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Erick Marcus

Ludogorets · M

9.2

Match Events

18'

O. Verdon↳ D. Almeida

43'

K. Duah↳ Erick Marcus

45'

I. Chochev↳ K. Duah

46'

Vitinho← P. Ejike

46'

D. Carmona Sierra← C. Acheampong

57'

P. Atanasov← T. Azevedo

59'

J. Andersson← Son

59'

I. Yordanov← D. Duarte

66'

V. Sakor← A. Tsingaras

70'

Rwan Cruz← K. Duah

70'

E. Kurtulus← D. Almeida

73'

U. Balde← A. Todorov

81'

A. Salido Tajero← I. Chochev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontanaLudogorets

Overview

22%Possession78%

2Total Shots18

0.47Expected Goals (xG)2.41

0Corners9

7Fouls9

Shots

2Total Shots18

0On Target8

1Off Target6

1Blocked3

1Inside Box11

1Outside Box7

Passing

22%Possession78%

210Total Passes827

144Accurate Passes742

69%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0