Ludogorets 1–0 Montana: Result & Stats

Ludogorets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Montana

C. Keșerü 73' (pen)

4/10/2021

First League · Round 23Huvepharma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Ludogorets59%

×Draw24%

Montana17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LudogoretsExpected goals in this matchMontana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.81

Ludogorets

1.72

Montana

0.81

Ludogorets creates 112% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 7 away

2.02

creates per match

0.91

0.71

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ludogorets

2.02

Montana

0.91

allows per match

Ludogorets

0.71

Montana

1.42

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.62scores less than expected

finishing

Ludogorets+0.08on par

Montana-0.62scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets ↓

Montana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ludogorets or draw

83%

Ludogorets or Montana

76%

Draw or Montana

41%

Winning margin

Ludogorets wins by 2+

33%

Montana wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ludogorets 1+ goals

82%

Ludogorets 2+ goals

51%

Ludogorets 3+ goals

25%

Montana 1+ goals

56%

Montana 2+ goals

19%

Montana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets (draw refunded)

77%

Montana (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Montana away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets attack 2.02 + Montana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.72

Montana attack 0.91 + Ludogorets defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ludogorets scores more

59%

level

24%

Montana scores more

17%

Ludogorets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Stefan Tsonkov

61'

D. Zakonov← R. Krastev

61'

N. Minkov← S. Georgiev

63'

E. Manu← S. Badji

73'

C. KeșerüPenalty

78'

A. Andrianantenaina← Alex Santana

79'

M. Tchibota← Wanderson

87'

A. Nedyalkov← Cauly

88'

S. Predev← D. Kiki

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LudogoretsMontana

Overview

74%Possession26%

6Total Shots1

8Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots1

4On Target1

2Off Target0

Passing

74%Possession26%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0