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Montana vs Ludogorets — First League 2026

Montana
Montana
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ludogorets
Ludogorets
T. Tasev 2'
D. Yankov 86'
E. Manu 52'
Higinio Marín 10'
10/25/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Montana17%
×Draw25%
Ludogorets59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
0.73
Ludogorets
1.63

Ludogorets creates 123% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montana
0.75
Ludogorets
1.66

allows per match

Montana
1.60
Ludogorets
0.72

finishing

Montana-0.32scores less
Ludogorets+0.28scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Ludogorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
41%
Montana or Ludogorets
75%
Draw or Ludogorets
83%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
5%
Ludogorets wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
52%
Montana 2+ goals
17%
Montana 3+ goals
4%
Ludogorets 1+ goals
80%
Ludogorets 2+ goals
48%
Ludogorets 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
22%
Ludogorets (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.60 · 7 matches

Ludogorets away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.72 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 0.75 + Ludogorets defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.73

Ludogorets attack 1.66 + Montana defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Montana scores more
17%
level
25%
Ludogorets scores more
59%

Ludogorets at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ludogorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
T. Tasev
10'
Higinio Marín
22'
E. Manu← Higinio Marín
27'
Bilal Bari
35'
Dimitar Iliev
52'
E. Manu
55'
Aleksandar Bashliev
64'
Anton Nedyalkov
67'
Jorginho← Cauly
68'
Y. Yordanov← D. Iliev
68'
S. Georgiev← N. Minkov
79'
I. Iliev← N. Tsvetkov
86'
D. Yankov
87'
Alex Santana← D. Yankov
87'
S. Badji← B. Tekpetey
90'
Ivelin Iliev
90+1'
S. Kamenov← B. Bari

Possession

62%Montana

Shots

4Montana

Statistics

MontanaLudogorets
Overview
62%Possession38%
4Total Shots8
2Corners7
13Fouls16
Shots
4Total Shots8
3On Target7
1Off Target1
Passing
62%Possession38%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls16
4Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

First League: Montana 1–3 Ludogorets

Ludogorets beat Montana 3-1 in First League on October 25, 2020.

Goals: T. Tasev (2'), Higinio Marín (10'), E. Manu (52'), D. Yankov (86').

Montana controlled possession (62%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.