Monarcas 1–2 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Monarcas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Toluca

G. Achilier 48'

P. Barrientos 65'

F. Uribe 39'

2/19/2017

Liga MX · Clausura - 7Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Monarcas42%

×Draw25%

Toluca33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Monarcas

1.50

Toluca

1.29

Monarcas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 153 away

1.47

creates per match

1.25

1.34

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Monarcas

1.47

Toluca

1.25

allows per match

Monarcas

1.34

Toluca

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

67%

Monarcas or Toluca

75%

Draw or Toluca

58%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

21%

Toluca wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

78%

Monarcas 2+ goals

44%

Monarcas 3+ goals

19%

Toluca 1+ goals

72%

Toluca 2+ goals

37%

Toluca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

56%

Toluca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.52 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.47 + Toluca defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Toluca attack 1.25 + Monarcas defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monarcas scores more

42%

level

25%

Toluca scores more

33%

Monarcas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

P. Barrientos

Toluca · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Enrique Perez

27'

Jesús Méndez

39'

F. Uribe↳ P. Barrientos

48'

G. Achilier↳ J. Cuero

53'

Diego Valdés

58'

Rodrigo Salinas

62'

C. Esquivel← J. Méndez

65'

P. Barrientos↳ C. Esquivel

66'

R. Vilchis← A. Polo

71'

G. Lezcano← R. Millar

78'

Rodolfo Vilchis

81'

L. Rey← E. Pérez

90'

Sinha← Gabriel Hauche

90+4'

E. Triverio← F. Uribe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasToluca

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots9

6Corners4

10Fouls21

Shots

12Total Shots9

2On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

324Total Passes412

248Accurate Passes348

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3