Monarcas 1–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Monarcas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santos Laguna

Jonathan Orozco 71' (OG)

N. Araújo 32'

1/22/2017

Liga MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Monarcas47%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.26

Monarcas

1.66

Santos Laguna

1.26

Monarcas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 144 away

1.44

creates per match

1.10

1.42

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Monarcas

1.44

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Monarcas

1.42

Santos Laguna

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

71%

Monarcas or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

53%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

24%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

81%

Monarcas 2+ goals

49%

Monarcas 3+ goals

23%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

36%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

62%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 50 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.44 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Monarcas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monarcas scores more

47%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

29%

Monarcas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

N. Araújo

Santos Laguna · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

Néstor Araujo

32'

N. Araújo

46'

J. Cuero← J. Zárate

63'

E. Armenteros← Djaniny

64'

F. Ortiz← R. Millar

67'

V. Alvarado← O. Martínez

71'

Jonathan OrozcoOwn goal

74'

A. Polo← M. Osuna

82'

82'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasSantos

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots10

3Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots10

2On Target3

10Off Target3

3Blocked4

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

509Total Passes260

434Accurate Passes184

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0