Monarcas 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas: Result & Stats

Monarcas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guadalajara Chivas

M. Osuna 36' (pen)

9/21/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monarcas38%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.31

Monarcas

1.35

Guadalajara Chivas

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 148 away

1.49

creates per match

1.18

1.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Monarcas

1.49

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Monarcas

1.44

Guadalajara Chivas

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

64%

Monarcas or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

62%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

17%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

74%

Monarcas 2+ goals

39%

Monarcas 3+ goals

15%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

73%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

38%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

51%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 41 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.22 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.49 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Monarcas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monarcas scores more

38%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

36%

Monarcas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Sosa

Monarcas · G

8.8

Match Events

36'

M. OsunaPenalty

51'

Dieter Villalpando

52'

R. Millar← C. Ramírez

63'

W. Sandoval← I. Brizuela

71'

G. Lezcano← M. Osuna

79'

O. Peralta← J. Molina

83'

E. Del Ángel← L. Mendoza

85'

Antonio Briseño

89'

Gabriel Achilier

90+1'

A. Cervantes← G. Sepúlveda

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasGuadalajara

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots21

4Corners13

12Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots21

1On Target6

7Off Target13

2Blocked2

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

281Total Passes463

213Accurate Passes416

76%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1