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Guadalajara Chivas vs Monarcas — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Monarcas
Monarcas
Á. Zaldívar 5'
S. Vegas 68'
F. Beltrán 49' (OG)
10/28/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas43%
×Draw26%
Monarcas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.46
Monarcas
1.20

Guadalajara Chivas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.41
Monarcas
1.35

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.05
Monarcas
1.50

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Monarcas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
69%
Guadalajara Chivas or Monarcas
74%
Draw or Monarcas
57%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
21%
Monarcas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
43%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
18%
Monarcas 1+ goals
70%
Monarcas 2+ goals
34%
Monarcas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
58%
Monarcas (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Monarcas attack 1.35 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
43%
level
26%
Monarcas scores more
31%

Guadalajara Chivas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
S. VegasMonarcasMonarcas · D
8.6

Match Events

5'
Á. Zaldívar↳ A. Pulido
36'
Aldo Rocha
49'
F. BeltránOwn goal
60'
D. Valdés← S. Ferreira
65'
E. López← W. Sandoval
68'
S. Vegas↳ R. Vilchis
70'
Fernando Beltran
72'
Angel Zaldívar
75'
J. Godínez← Á. Zaldívar
76'
A. Cervantes← F. Beltrán
78'
M. Osuna← R. Millar
81'
Jair Pereira
84'
G. Lezcano← R. Vilchis

Possession

50%Guadalajara

Shots

16Guadalajara

Pass accuracy

50%Guadalajara

Statistics

GuadalajaraMonarcas
Overview
50%Possession50%
16Total Shots19
5Corners9
12Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots19
8On Target10
6Off Target6
2Blocked3
11Inside Box12
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
321Total Passes308
247Accurate Passes236
77%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
8Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Monarcas

Monarcas beat Guadalajara Chivas 2-1 in Liga MX on October 28, 2018.

Goals: Á. Zaldívar (5'), F. Beltrán (49' o.g.), S. Vegas (68').

Guadalajara Chivas controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.