Guadalajara Chivas vs Monarcas

Guadalajara Chivas

CANC

00:00

Monarcas

4/5/2020

Liga MX · Clausura - 12Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas43%

×Draw26%

Monarcas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.20

Guadalajara Chivas

1.46

Monarcas

1.20

Guadalajara Chivas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

1.34

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.41

Monarcas

1.34

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.05

Monarcas

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

69%

Guadalajara Chivas or Monarcas

74%

Draw or Monarcas

57%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

21%

Monarcas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

77%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

43%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

18%

Monarcas 1+ goals

70%

Monarcas 2+ goals

34%

Monarcas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

58%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.05 · 148 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.41 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Monarcas attack 1.34 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

43%

level

26%

Monarcas scores more

31%

Guadalajara Chivas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff