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Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Monagas SC
Monagas SCadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
8/20/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Quarter-finalsEstadio Alexander Comanche Bottini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Monagas SC58%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Tachira FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.61
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.74

Monagas SC creates 118% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
2.22
Deportivo Tachira FC
0.80

allows per match

Monagas SC
0.67
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
83%
Monagas SC or Deportivo Tachira FC
75%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
42%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
32%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
80%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
48%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
22%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
52%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
17%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
77%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 2.22 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.80 + Monagas SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Monagas SC scores more
58%
level
25%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
17%

Monagas SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Monagas SC 1–0 Deportivo Tachira FC

Monagas SC beat Deportivo Tachira FC 1-0 in Copa Venezuela on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Alexander Comanche Bottini in Maturín.