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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Monagas SC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Monagas SC
Monagas SCadvanced
9/3/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Quarter-finalsEstadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC54%
×Draw20%
Monagas SC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Tachira FC
2.29
Monagas SC
1.54

Deportivo Tachira FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
3.50
Monagas SC
2.09

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00
Monagas SC
1.09

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par
Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Monagas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw
74%
Deportivo Tachira FC or Monagas SC
80%
Draw or Monagas SC
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
33%
Monagas SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
90%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
66%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
40%
Monagas SC 1+ goals
79%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
45%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
68%
Monagas SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 3.50 + Monagas SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.29

Monagas SC attack 2.09 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
54%
level
20%
Monagas SC scores more
26%

Deportivo Tachira FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Tachira FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Tachira FC vs Monagas SC

Monagas SC beat Deportivo Tachira FC 1-0 in Copa Venezuela on September 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo.