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Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Deportivo Tachira FC
Deportivo Tachira FC
1/31/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Monagas SC39%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Tachira FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.25
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.13

Monagas SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 147 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.51
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.12

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.13
Deportivo Tachira FC
1.00

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Deportivo Tachira FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
67%
Monagas SC or Deportivo Tachira FC
72%
Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC
61%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
71%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
36%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 134 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.51 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.12 + Monagas SC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monagas SC scores more
39%
level
28%
Deportivo Tachira FC scores more
33%

Monagas SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC

Deportivo Tachira FC beat Monagas SC 4-1 in Primera División on January 31, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.