Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1–0 Lida: Result & Stats

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lida

I. Monich 90'

8/31/2024

1. Division · Round 22Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 437%

×Draw24%

Lida39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchLida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.52

Lida

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

1.82

1.29

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.35

Lida

1.82

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.29

Lida

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Lida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

61%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Lida

76%

Draw or Lida

63%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

18%

Lida wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

78%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

45%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

20%

Lida 1+ goals

79%

Lida 2+ goals

46%

Lida 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

49%

Lida (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Lida away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.35 + Lida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lida attack 1.82 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

37%

level

24%

Lida scores more

39%

Lida at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Laval

39'

A. Lazarev

45+3'

V. Vasilenko

46'

A. Vlasov← V. Fastovets

46'

B. Kutsiy← K. Goncharik

48'

S. Absamadov

50'

A. Kats

66'

A. Burnos← D. Slesarchuk

71'

I. Monich← V. Fedosov

73'

R. Askerov← N. Karpuk

79'

E. Nikoporenok← D. German

81'

81'

90+2'

90'

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Lida

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

46'▲A. Vlasov←▼V. Fastovets

46'▲B. Kutsiy←▼K. Goncharik

71'▲I. Monich←▼V. Fedosov

79'▲E. Nikoporenok←▼D. German

90+2'▲A. Zimin←▼Y. Kozlov

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

VlasovKutsiyMonichNikoporenokZiminTretyakGuletskiyKovalBylinovichUsenya

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

66'▲A. Burnos←▼D. Slesarchuk

73'▲R. Askerov←▼N. Karpuk

Lida substitutes

BurnosAskerovKhalyavitskiyKhodykoZabelinShoratsZaets

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1–0 Lida

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 beat Lida 1-0 in 1. Division on August 31, 2024.

Goals: I. Monich (90').

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Molodechno.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 vs Lida — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1–0 Lida