Lida 0–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4: Result & Stats

Lida

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

A. Korzun 48', 21'

A. Shvedchikov 18'

7/15/2023

1. Division · Round 16Stadyen Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Lida44%

×Draw23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 433%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LidaExpected goals in this matchMolodechno-DYuSSh 4

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.46

Lida

1.73

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.46

Lida creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 16 away

1.82

creates per match

1.63

1.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Lida

1.82

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.63

allows per match

Lida

1.29

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lida+0.00on par

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lida or draw

67%

Lida or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

77%

Draw or Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

56%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+

23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals

82%

Lida 2+ goals

52%

Lida 3+ goals

25%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

77%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

43%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)

57%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.82 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.73

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.63 + Lida defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lida scores more

44%

level

23%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

33%

Lida at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Y. Nikiporenok

18'

21'

40'

48'

56'

D. Slesarchuk← A. Kuyzha

56'

I. Baglay← A. Rogach

58'

P. Kazantsev

64'

I. Monich← E. Nikoporenok

72'

D. Cherivkhanov← A. Zhivushko

72'

G. Guletskiy← A. Shvedchikov

73'

R. Burak← A. Korzun

78'

E. Sanyuk← D. Kutsepalov

78'

E. Voyna← A. Krotov

82'

E. Zabelin← V. Vasilenko

85'

I. Narozhnik← V. Maslovskiy

Lida

Molodechno-DYuSSh

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Korzun

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

56'▲D. Slesarchuk←▼A. Kuyzha

56'▲I. Baglay←▼A. Rogach

72'▲D. Cherivkhanov←▼A. Zhivushko

78'▲E. Sanyuk←▼D. Kutsepalov

82'▲E. Zabelin←▼V. Vasilenko

Lida substitutes

SlesarchukBaglayCherivkhanovSanyukZabelinLazarevKhodykoGremzaKazakovKlunok

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

64'▲I. Monich←▼E. Nikoporenok

72'▲G. Guletskiy←▼A. Shvedchikov

73'▲R. Burak←▼A. Korzun

78'▲E. Voyna←▼A. Krotov

85'▲I. Narozhnik←▼V. Maslovskiy

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

MonichGuletskiyBurakVoynaNarozhnikDylevskiyAnanskikhVysotskiy

1. Division: Lida 0–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 beat Lida 3-0 in 1. Division on July 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Shvedchikov (18'), A. Korzun (21', 48').

The match was played at Stadyen Start in Lida.

Lida vs Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Lida 0–3 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4