Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–3 Lida: Result & Stats

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lida

I. Monich 77', 1'

D. Kutsepalov 67'

D. Slesarchuk 12', 2'

11/19/2023

1. Division · Round 33Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Molodechno-DYuSSh 444%

×Draw24%

Lida32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Expected goals in this matchLida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.36

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.65

Lida

1.36

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

1.86

creates per match

1.73

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.86

Lida

1.73

allows per match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1.00

Lida

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4+0.00on par

Lida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 ↓

Lida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw

68%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or Lida

76%

Draw or Lida

56%

Winning margin

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 wins by 2+

23%

Lida wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1+ goals

81%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2+ goals

49%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 3+ goals

23%

Lida 1+ goals

74%

Lida 2+ goals

39%

Lida 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 (draw refunded)

58%

Lida (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Lida away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 attack 1.86 + Lida defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lida attack 1.73 + Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 scores more

44%

level

24%

Lida scores more

32%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

I. Monich

2'

D. Slesarchuk

12'

D. Slesarchuk

26'

G. Guletskiy← A. Shvedchikov

29'

66'

67'

68'

71'

71'

N. Ryabykh← A. Krotov

77'

I. Monich

78'

S. Drozd← A. Petrusevich

82'

S. Zaets← D. Kutsepalov

84'

P. Rassolko← E. Nikoporenok

85'

A. Kuyzha← D. Slesarchuk

87'

A. Dylevski

90+4'

A. Zhivushko

90+1'

I. Baglay← K. Parmonov

Molodechno-DYuSSh

Lida

▼

⚽

▼

Kutsepalo

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: A. Khrapkovskiy

26'▲G. Guletskiy←▼A. Shvedchikov

71'▲A. Korzun←▼Y. Kozlov

71'▲N. Ryabykh←▼A. Krotov

78'▲S. Drozd←▼A. Petrusevich

84'▲P. Rassolko←▼E. Nikoporenok

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 substitutes

GuletskiyKorzunRyabykhDrozdRassolkoChichevPotershukVysotskiyEreminokKazantsev

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

82'▲S. Zaets←▼D. Kutsepalov

85'▲A. Kuyzha←▼D. Slesarchuk

90+1'▲I. Baglay←▼K. Parmonov

Lida substitutes

ZaetsKuyzhaBaglayBelyBurnosLazarevKhodykoSanyukKlunokIvanovskiy