Molinos El Pirata 1–1 Deportiva Agropecuaria

Molinos El Pirata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportiva Agropecuaria

L. Chaparro 87' (pen)

J. Nunez 37'

6/28/2025

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Molinos El Pirata44%

×Draw26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Agropecuaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Molinos El Pirata

1.43

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.14

Molinos El Pirata creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.40

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.25

Deportiva Agropecuaria

0.88

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.40

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Deportiva Agropecuaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

70%

Molinos El Pirata or Deportiva Agropecuaria

74%

Draw or Deportiva Agropecuaria

56%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

21%

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

76%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

42%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

17%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

68%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

32%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

59%

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.25 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 0.88 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

44%

level

26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

30%

Molinos El Pirata at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

37'

J. Nunez

44'

46'

D. Tapia← C. Torres

46'

J. Carbajal← R. Paredes

50'

B. Prado← G. Acevedo

52'

55'

60'

L. Chaparro← J. Navarro

66'

A. Valoyes← C. Leon

66'

M. Matzuda← A. Rodriguez

73'

77'

80'

A. Chirinos← R. Vasquez

87'

L. ChaparroPenalty

90+5'

90+1'

D. Temoche← F. Rodriguez

90+1'

D. Lopez← J. Nunez

Molinos

Deportiva

1

Rojas

22

▼

44

19

3

14

11

8

⚽

▼

Nunez

13

Cano

77

▼

Rodriguez

9

▼

Rodriguez

1

Silva

3

Canseco

4

▼

Torres

18

▼

Vasquez

16

▼

Paredes

6

▼

Navarro

5

Hoyos

20

Santos

7

▼

Leon

23

Anton

2

Morales

Manager: J. Butrón

46'▲D. Tapia←▼C. Torres

46'▲J. Carbajal←▼R. Paredes

60'▲L. Chaparro←▼J. Navarro

66'▲A. Valoyes←▼C. Leon

80'▲A. Chirinos←▼R. Vasquez

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

24Larrea19Quiroz10Chaparro11Valoyes32Suclupe22Tapia15Chirinos8Carbajal21Lozano

Manager: E. Arce

50'▲B. Prado←▼G. Acevedo

66'▲M. Matzuda←▼A. Rodriguez

90+1'▲D. Temoche←▼F. Rodriguez

90+1'▲D. Lopez←▼J. Nunez

Deportiva Agropecuaria substitutes

74Lozada7Matzuda31Temoche23Aponte30Huaman6Delgado4Prado33Torres15Lopez