Deportiva Agropecuaria 1–1 Molinos El Pirata

Deportiva Agropecuaria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molinos El Pirata

C. León 61'

M. Zárate 22'

6/22/2024

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio San Luis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria52%

×Draw24%

Molinos El Pirata24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportiva AgropecuariaExpected goals in this matchMolinos El Pirata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.08

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.69

Molinos El Pirata

1.08

Deportiva Agropecuaria creates 56% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 64 away

1.29

creates per match

0.95

1.21

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.29

Molinos El Pirata

0.95

allows per match

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.21

Molinos El Pirata

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportiva Agropecuaria ↓

Molinos El Pirata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportiva Agropecuaria or draw

76%

Deportiva Agropecuaria or Molinos El Pirata

76%

Draw or Molinos El Pirata

48%

Winning margin

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

28%

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

82%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

50%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

24%

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

66%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

29%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

68%

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportiva Agropecuaria at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Molinos El Pirata away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.08 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 1.29 + Molinos El Pirata defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.69

Molinos El Pirata attack 0.95 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

52%

level

24%

Molinos El Pirata scores more

24%

Deportiva Agropecuaria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportiva Agropecuaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Zárate

45+3'

C. Guzman

46'

F. Inolopú← D. Castillo

46'

L. Carrillo← S. Hidalgo

60'

60'

61'

64'

64'

E. Gonzáles← J. Gonzales

66'

67'

79'

80'

80'

83'

A. Domínguez← F. Fernández

83'

P. Cruzado← M. Zárate

85'

F. Vergara← A. Cubas

90+1'

H. Hoyos

Deportiva

Molinos

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: L. La Torre

46'▲F. Inolopú←▼D. Castillo

64'▲A. Torres←▼A. Huamán

64'▲E. Gonzáles←▼J. Gonzales

79'▲S. Silva←▼C. Guzmán

85'▲F. Vergara←▼A. Cubas

Deportiva Agropecuaria substitutes

InolopúTorresGonzálesSilvaVergaraMichaSánchezRuíz

Manager: J. Butrón

46'▲L. Carrillo←▼S. Hidalgo

60'▲J. Martínez←▼L. Díaz

66'▲G. Quiróz←▼R. Robles

83'▲A. Domínguez←▼F. Fernández

83'▲P. Cruzado←▼M. Zárate

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

CarrilloMartínezQuirózDomínguezCruzadoMacchiavelloFloresIzaguirreMartínez

Match Recap: Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Molinos El Pirata

Deportiva Agropecuaria and Molinos El Pirata drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Zárate (22'), C. León (61').

The match was played at Estadio San Luis in Bagua Grande.

Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Molinos El Pirata — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportiva Agropecuaria vs Molinos El Pirata