Molinos El Pirata 2–1 Deportiva Agropecuaria

Molinos El Pirata

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportiva Agropecuaria

M. Zárate 83'

M. Peralta 42'

M. Valverde 45+1' (pen)

4/30/2024

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Molinos El Pirata44%

×Draw26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Molinos El PirataExpected goals in this matchDeportiva Agropecuaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Molinos El Pirata

1.43

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.14

Molinos El Pirata creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

1.25

creates per match

0.88

1.40

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.25

Deportiva Agropecuaria

0.88

allows per match

Molinos El Pirata

1.40

Deportiva Agropecuaria

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molinos El Pirata+0.00on par

Deportiva Agropecuaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molinos El Pirata ↓

Deportiva Agropecuaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Molinos El Pirata or draw

70%

Molinos El Pirata or Deportiva Agropecuaria

74%

Draw or Deportiva Agropecuaria

56%

Winning margin

Molinos El Pirata wins by 2+

21%

Deportiva Agropecuaria wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Molinos El Pirata 1+ goals

76%

Molinos El Pirata 2+ goals

42%

Molinos El Pirata 3+ goals

17%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 1+ goals

68%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 2+ goals

32%

Deportiva Agropecuaria 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Molinos El Pirata (draw refunded)

59%

Deportiva Agropecuaria (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molinos El Pirata at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.40 · 67 matches

Deportiva Agropecuaria away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molinos El Pirata attack 1.25 + Deportiva Agropecuaria defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportiva Agropecuaria attack 0.88 + Molinos El Pirata defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Molinos El Pirata scores more

44%

level

26%

Deportiva Agropecuaria scores more

30%

Molinos El Pirata at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Molinos El Pirata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

C. Guzman

42'

M. Peralta

45+1'

M. ValverdePenalty

51'

M. Ramírez← A. Domínguez

64'

E. Renteria

65'

B. Calabrese← A. Torres

65'

E. Gonzáles← F. Zamalloa

67'

P. A. Ramirez Duarte

68'

J. Martínez← M. Ramírez

68'

S. Martínez← R. Robles

73'

Y. Salas← C. Guzmán

80'

G. Quiroz

80'

A. Huamán← A. Cubas

80'

S. Silva← C. León

83'

M. Zárate

88'

L. Díaz← F. Fernández

88'

M. Súclupe← A. Gadea

Molinos

Deportiva

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Butrón

51'▲M. Ramírez←▼A. Domínguez

68'▲J. Martínez←▼M. Ramírez

68'▲S. Martínez←▼R. Robles

88'▲L. Díaz←▼F. Fernández

88'▲M. Súclupe←▼A. Gadea

Molinos El Pirata substitutes

RamírezMartínezMartínezDíazSúclupeCansecoIzaguirreParedesHidalgo

Manager: M. Grioni

65'▲B. Calabrese←▼A. Torres

65'▲E. Gonzáles←▼F. Zamalloa

73'▲Y. Salas←▼C. Guzmán

80'▲A. Huamán←▼A. Cubas

80'▲S. Silva←▼C. León

Deportiva Agropecuaria substitutes

CalabreseGonzálesSalasHuamánSilvaMichaCastilloGonzalesRuíz

Match Recap: Molinos El Pirata vs Deportiva Agropecuaria

Molinos El Pirata beat Deportiva Agropecuaria 2-1 in Segunda División on April 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Peralta (42'), M. Valverde (45+1' pen), M. Zárate (83').

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.

Molinos El Pirata vs Deportiva Agropecuaria — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Molinos El Pirata vs Deportiva Agropecuaria