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Molde vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Molde
Molde
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
J. Abdullai 71'
V. Berisha 49' (pen)
O. Okeke 56'
S. Hestnes 41'
J. Nunez 34' (pen)
6/29/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Molde44%
×Draw26%
KFUM Oslo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Molde
1.50
KFUM Oslo
1.20

Molde creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Molde
1.89
KFUM Oslo
1.13

allows per match

Molde
1.27
KFUM Oslo
1.10

finishing

Molde+0.26scores more
KFUM Oslo+0.24scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Molde or draw
70%
Molde or KFUM Oslo
74%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
56%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+
22%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals
78%
Molde 2+ goals
44%
Molde 3+ goals
19%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
70%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
34%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)
59%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.89 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

KFUM Oslo attack 1.13 + Molde defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Molde scores more
44%
level
26%
KFUM Oslo scores more
30%

Molde at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. AbdullaiMoldeMolde · F
7.7

Match Events

18'
Daniel Daga
32'
Jacob Karlstrøm
34'
J. NunezPenalty
35'
M. Daehli← D. Daga
41'
S. Hestnes↳ J. Hjorth
45'
Ayoub Aleesami
46'
M. Linnes← M. Enggaard
46'
K. Haugen← V. Lund
46'
C. Zady← F. Gulbrandsen
49'
V. BerishaPenalty
56'
O. Okeke↳ H. Hoseth
70'
J. Abdullai← C. Oyvann
71'
J. Abdullai↳ V. Berisha
74'
B. Kristensen← D. Hickson
87'
A. Nouri← J. Hjorth
87'
M. Ndiaye← J. Nunez

Possession

63%Molde

Shots

12Molde

Pass accuracy

53%Molde

Statistics

MoldeKFUM
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots6
1.89Expected Goals (xG)2.59
4Corners0
16Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots6
4On Target4
5Off Target2
3Blocked0
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
617Total Passes359
516Accurate Passes270
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls16
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Eliteserien: Molde 2–3 KFUM Oslo

KFUM Oslo beat Molde 3-2 in Eliteserien on June 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Nunez (34' pen), S. Hestnes (41'), V. Berisha (49' pen), O. Okeke (56'), J. Abdullai (71').

Molde controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Aker Stadion in Molde.