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KFUM Oslo vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Molde
Molde
A. Nouri 79'
O. Brynhildsen 80'
9/23/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

KFUM Oslo42%
×Draw26%
Molde31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Oslo
1.40
Molde
1.17

KFUM Oslo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

KFUM Oslo
1.44
Molde
1.32

allows per match

KFUM Oslo
1.01
Molde
1.36

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.21scores less
Molde-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Molde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw
69%
KFUM Oslo or Molde
74%
Draw or Molde
58%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
20%
Molde wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
75%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
41%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
17%
Molde 1+ goals
69%
Molde 2+ goals
33%
Molde 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
57%
Molde (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Molde away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Molde defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Molde attack 1.32 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more
42%
level
26%
Molde scores more
31%

KFUM Oslo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
D. HicksonKFUM OsloKFUM Oslo · M
7.5

Match Events

59'
M. Kaasa← E. Breivik
60'
C. Øyvann← M. Bjørnbak
69'
R. Svindland← Moussa Njie
75'
J. Hjorth← D. Hickson
76'
M. Enggård← M. Møller Dæhli
76'
V. Lund← I. Amundsen
79'
A. Nouri↳ R. Svindland
80'
O. Brynhildsen↳ M. Kaasa
87'
F. Ihler← M. Eikrem
88'
M. Ndiaye← T. Haltvik

Possession

35%KFUM

Shots

6KFUM

Pass accuracy

46%KFUM

Statistics

KFUMMolde
Overview
35%Possession65%
6Total Shots8
1.08Expected Goals (xG)0.30
1Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots8
2On Target2
3Off Target3
1Blocked3
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box1
Passing
35%Possession65%
362Total Passes655
250Accurate Passes533
69%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Offsides1

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Molde

KFUM Oslo and Molde drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on September 23, 2024.

Goals: A. Nouri (79'), O. Brynhildsen (80').

Molde controlled possession (65%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.