Molde 4–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Molde

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Aalesund

2/27/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Molde48%

×Draw22%

Aalesund30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.56

Molde

2.01

Aalesund

1.56

Molde creates 29% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

1.86

1.25

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Molde

1.88

Aalesund

1.86

allows per match

Molde

1.25

Aalesund

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Molde+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Molde or draw

70%

Molde or Aalesund

78%

Draw or Aalesund

52%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

27%

Aalesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

87%

Molde 2+ goals

59%

Molde 3+ goals

32%

Aalesund 1+ goals

79%

Aalesund 2+ goals

46%

Aalesund 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

61%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.88 + Aalesund defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.01

Aalesund attack 1.86 + Molde defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Molde scores more

48%

level

22%

Aalesund scores more

30%

Molde at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Molde

Aalesund

13

4

5

22

7

21

6

8

3

9

39

16

6

4

33

26

14

17

5

23

20

Manager: Magne Hoseth

Molde substitutes

12Posiadala3Oyvann8Gulbrandsen11Zady18Stenevik19HauganBenderIsufi58Nakken60Sylte

Manager: Kjetil-Andre Rekdal

Aalesund substitutes

26Larsen23FroysaSyversen29Boe2Andresen16Orsahl17Myrlid11Johannsson

Match Recap: Molde vs Aalesund

Molde beat Aalesund 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 27, 2026.

Molde vs Aalesund — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Molde vs Aalesund