Molde 3–0 Aalesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Molde

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aalesund

S. Heggheim 90+1' (pen)

M. Grødem 69'

M. Linnes 58'

5/3/2023

Eliteserien · Round 17Aker Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Molde53%

×Draw22%

Aalesund25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoldeExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.28

Molde

1.96

Aalesund

1.28

Molde creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

1.20

1.36

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Molde

1.47

Aalesund

1.20

allows per match

Molde

1.36

Aalesund

2.45

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Molde+0.70scores more

Aalesund-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Molde ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Molde or draw

75%

Molde or Aalesund

78%

Draw or Aalesund

47%

Winning margin

Molde wins by 2+

31%

Aalesund wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Molde 1+ goals

86%

Molde 2+ goals

58%

Molde 3+ goals

31%

Aalesund 1+ goals

72%

Aalesund 2+ goals

37%

Aalesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Molde (draw refunded)

68%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Molde at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.45 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Molde attack 1.47 + Aalesund defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Aalesund attack 1.20 + Molde defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Molde scores more

53%

level

22%

Aalesund scores more

25%

Molde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Heggheim

Molde · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

Alexander Juel Andersen

37'

Emil Breivik

46'

O. Kolskogen← D. Fällman

49'

Martin Bjornbak

58'

M. Linnes↳ O. Brynhildsen

69'

M. Grødem

77'

I. Atanga← K. Lunding

78'

E. Moses← B. Kristensen

80'

N. Ødegård← O. Brynhildsen

81'

J. Moe← J. Kitolano

81'

K. Barmen← A. Andersen

87'

E. Knudtzon← M. Grødem

90'

Ole Martin Lekven Kolskogen

90+1'

M. Kaasa← E. Breivik

90+1'

S. HeggheimPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoldeAalesund

Overview

52%Possession48%

21Total Shots3

11Corners1

10Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots3

7On Target1

4Off Target1

10Blocked1

15Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

52%Possession48%

529Total Passes495

454Accurate Passes428

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2