Aalesund 3–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Aalesund

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Molde

I. Atanga 61', 57'

E. Moses 40' (pen)

N. Ødegård 90'

5/16/2023

Eliteserien · Round 7Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aalesund36%

×Draw24%

Molde40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.56

Aalesund

1.48

Molde

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.57

creates per match

1.37

1.74

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Aalesund

1.57

Molde

1.37

allows per match

Aalesund

1.74

Molde

1.40

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Aalesund-0.40scores less

Molde-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

60%

Aalesund or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

64%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

17%

Molde wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

77%

Aalesund 2+ goals

43%

Aalesund 3+ goals

19%

Molde 1+ goals

79%

Molde 2+ goals

46%

Molde 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

48%

Molde (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

Molde away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.57 + Molde defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Molde attack 1.37 + Aalesund defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aalesund scores more

36%

level

24%

Molde scores more

40%

Molde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Molde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Grytebust

Aalesund · G

8.7

Match Events

40'

E. MosesPenalty

42'

Amidou Diop

46'

V. Berisha← M. Kaasa

50'

Alexander Juel Andersen

55'

57'

61'

64'

65'

M. Løvik← E. Knudtzon

65'

B. Hansen← M. Bjørnbak

65'

M. Grødem← E. Breivik

69'

K. Ødemarksbakken← K. Lunding

69'

M. Karlsbakk← I. Atanga

77'

O. Kolskogen← A. Andersen

86'

N. Ødegård← O. Brynhildsen

87'

B. Kristensen← E. Moses

90+3'

David Fällman

90+3'

Veton Berisha

90'

N. Ødegård↳ M. Grødem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundMolde

Overview

31%Possession69%

13Total Shots16

5Corners11

13Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots16

7On Target8

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

11Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

239Total Passes522

161Accurate Passes436

67%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

Eliteserien: Aalesund 3–1 Molde

Aalesund beat Molde 3-1 in Eliteserien on May 16, 2023.

Goals: E. Moses (40' pen), I. Atanga (57', 61'), N. Ødegård (90').

Molde controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Molde — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Aalesund 3–1 Molde