Modbury Jets 3–1 Adelaide Raiders: Result & Stats

Modbury Jets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Adelaide Raiders

C. Tassotti 53'

T. Akimoto 23'

C. Campbell 10'

N. Deng 45'

2/28/2026

South Australia State League 1 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Modbury Jets50%

×Draw21%

Adelaide Raiders29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.60

Modbury Jets

2.14

Adelaide Raiders

1.60

Modbury Jets creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

2.55

creates per match

2.09

1.12

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Modbury Jets

2.55

Adelaide Raiders

2.09

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.12

Adelaide Raiders

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Adelaide Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

71%

Modbury Jets or Adelaide Raiders

79%

Draw or Adelaide Raiders

50%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

29%

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

88%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

63%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

36%

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

80%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

47%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

63%

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 2.55 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.14

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.09 + Modbury Jets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

50%

level

21%

Adelaide Raiders scores more

29%

Modbury Jets at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

23'

45'

53'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff