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Adelaide Raiders vs Modbury Jets — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide Raiders
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
D. Niyonkuru 90+2'
I. Matikulas 88'
D. Ditroia 82'
7/5/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 17Croatian Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Adelaide Raiders40%
×Draw23%
Modbury Jets36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Raiders
1.68
Modbury Jets
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 47 away

creates per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.38
Modbury Jets
1.53

allows per match

Adelaide Raiders
1.63
Modbury Jets
1.98

finishing

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Raiders ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adelaide Raiders or draw
64%
Adelaide Raiders or Modbury Jets
77%
Draw or Modbury Jets
60%

Winning margin

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+
21%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals
81%
Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals
50%
Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals
24%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
79%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
47%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)
53%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Raiders at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.38 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.68

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adelaide Raiders scores more
40%
level
23%
Modbury Jets scores more
36%

Adelaide Raiders at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
D. Ditroia
88'
I. Matikulas
90+2'
D. Niyonkuru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Raiders vs Modbury Jets

Adelaide Raiders beat Modbury Jets 2-1 in South Australia NPL on July 5, 2025.

Goals: D. Ditroia (82'), I. Matikulas (88'), D. Niyonkuru (90+2').

The match was played at Croatian Sports Centre in Adelaide.