Modbury Jets 2–0 Adelaide Raiders: Result & Stats

Modbury Jets

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Adelaide Raiders

J. O'Doherty 80'

F. Schimizzi 36'

4/11/2025

South Australia NPL · Round 6Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets43%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Raiders35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.72

Modbury Jets

1.93

Adelaide Raiders

1.72

Modbury Jets creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 54 away

1.79

creates per match

1.59

1.85

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Modbury Jets

1.79

Adelaide Raiders

1.59

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.85

Adelaide Raiders

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Adelaide Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

65%

Modbury Jets or Adelaide Raiders

78%

Draw or Adelaide Raiders

57%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

24%

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

85%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

57%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

30%

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

82%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

51%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

55%

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Adelaide Raiders defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.93

Adelaide Raiders attack 1.59 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

43%

level

22%

Adelaide Raiders scores more

35%

Modbury Jets at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

F. Schimizzi

80'

J. O'Doherty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff