Modbury Jets 3–1 Adelaide Olympic: Result & Stats

Modbury Jets

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adelaide Olympic

L. McCabe 66'

F. Schimizzi 54'

H. McCabe 13'

M. Kamara 85'

3/30/2024

South Australia NPL · Round 5Smith Partners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Modbury Jets44%

×Draw23%

Adelaide Olympic33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Modbury JetsExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Olympic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.49

Modbury Jets

1.76

Adelaide Olympic

1.49

Modbury Jets creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 62 away

1.79

creates per match

1.13

1.85

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Modbury Jets

1.79

Adelaide Olympic

1.13

allows per match

Modbury Jets

1.85

Adelaide Olympic

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modbury Jets ↓

Adelaide Olympic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Modbury Jets or draw

67%

Modbury Jets or Adelaide Olympic

77%

Draw or Adelaide Olympic

56%

Winning margin

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

23%

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

83%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

52%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

26%

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals

77%

Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals

44%

Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

57%

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modbury Jets at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.85 · 47 matches

Adelaide Olympic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modbury Jets attack 1.79 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.13 + Modbury Jets defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Modbury Jets scores more

44%

level

23%

Adelaide Olympic scores more

33%

Modbury Jets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Modbury Jets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

H. McCabe

35'

T. Tsarkani

54'

F. Schimizzi

66'

L. McCabe

85'

M. Kamara

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff