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Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets
M. Katopodis 16'
J. O'Doherty 45'
3/27/2026South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Adelaide Olympic38%
×Draw25%
Modbury Jets38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Olympic
1.44
Modbury Jets
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 32 away

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.70
Modbury Jets
2.09

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic
0.80
Modbury Jets
1.19

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par
Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

Modbury Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw
62%
Adelaide Olympic or Modbury Jets
75%
Draw or Modbury Jets
62%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
18%
Modbury Jets wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
76%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
42%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
18%
Modbury Jets 1+ goals
76%
Modbury Jets 2+ goals
42%
Modbury Jets 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
50%
Modbury Jets (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.70 + Modbury Jets defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.44

Modbury Jets attack 2.09 + Adelaide Olympic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more
38%
level
25%
Modbury Jets scores more
38%

Adelaide Olympic at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Katopodis
45'
J. O'Doherty
Adelaide
Modbury
G. Tsonis
Manager: G. Tsonis
M. Natale
Manager: M. Natale

Match Recap: Adelaide Olympic vs Modbury Jets

Adelaide Olympic and Modbury Jets drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on March 27, 2026.

Goals: M. Katopodis (16'), J. O'Doherty (45').