Adelaide Olympic 1–4 Modbury Jets: Result & Stats

Adelaide Olympic

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Modbury Jets

B. Kebede 44'

H. McCabe 78', 61'

F. Schimizzi 45+1'

W. Lachlan 23'

6/22/2024

South Australia NPL · Round 16Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Adelaide Olympic44%

×Draw22%

Modbury Jets34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide OlympicExpected goals in this matchModbury Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.70

Adelaide Olympic

1.94

Modbury Jets

1.70

Adelaide Olympic creates 14% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 47 away

1.89

creates per match

1.53

1.87

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic

1.89

Modbury Jets

1.53

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic

1.87

Modbury Jets

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Modbury Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

Modbury Jets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw

66%

Adelaide Olympic or Modbury Jets

78%

Draw or Modbury Jets

56%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+

24%

Modbury Jets wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals

86%

Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals

58%

Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals

30%

Modbury Jets 1+ goals

82%

Modbury Jets 2+ goals

51%

Modbury Jets 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)

56%

Modbury Jets (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

Modbury Jets away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.98 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.89 + Modbury Jets defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.94

Modbury Jets attack 1.53 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more

44%

level

22%

Modbury Jets scores more

34%

Adelaide Olympic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

W. Lachlan

44'

B. Kebede

45+1'

F. Schimizzi

61'

H. McCabe

78'

H. McCabe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff