Mladost Lješkopolje 3–3 Dečić: Result & Stats

Mladost Lješkopolje

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dečić

M. Krivokapić 72', 57'

L. Maraš 69'

D. Pešukić 87'

A. Marušić 24'

S. Cicmil 4' (OG)

4/2/2022

First League · Round 27DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje32%

×Draw29%

Dečić39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LješkopoljeExpected goals in this matchDečić

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.04

Dečić

1.17

Dečić creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 108 away

1.15

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.15

Dečić

1.08

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.25

Dečić

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Dečić →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw

61%

Mladost Lješkopolje or Dečić

71%

Draw or Dečić

68%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

12%

Dečić wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

65%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

28%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

9%

Dečić 1+ goals

69%

Dečić 2+ goals

33%

Dečić 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

45%

Dečić (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.93 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.15 + Dečić defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dečić attack 1.08 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

32%

level

29%

Dečić scores more

39%

Dečić at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

S. CicmilOwn goal

22'

M. Bozanovic

24'

A. Marušić

29'

A. Rudovic

45'

D. Vukovic

47'

J. Nikolic

57'

M. Krivokapić

67'

V. Janketić← K. Vulaj

68'

M. Tuci

68'

M. Mrvaljević← D. Vuković

69'

L. Maraš

72'

M. Krivokapić

76'

B. Marković← A. Rudović

76'

D. Krkanović← A. Adžović

87'

D. Pešukić

88'

H. Muharemović← A. Sentoku

90+2'

L. Bulatović← M. Krivokapić

90+2'

A. Adrović← N. Čelebić

Mladost

Dečić

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Krivokapi

Manager: V. Pejović

68'▲M. Mrvaljević←▼D. Vuković

88'▲H. Muharemović←▼A. Sentoku

90+2'▲L. Bulatović←▼M. Krivokapić

90+2'▲A. Adrović←▼N. Čelebić

Mladost Lješkopolje substitutes

MrvaljevićMuharemovićBulatovićAdrović

Manager: M. Radović

67'▲V. Janketić←▼K. Vulaj

76'▲B. Marković←▼A. Rudović

76'▲D. Krkanović←▼A. Adžović

Dečić substitutes

JanketićMarkovićKrkanović

Match Recap: Mladost Lješkopolje vs Dečić

Mladost Lješkopolje and Dečić drew 3-3 in First League on April 2, 2022.

Goals: S. Cicmil (4' o.g.), A. Marušić (24'), M. Krivokapić (57', 72'), L. Maraš (69'), D. Pešukić (87').

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.

Mladost Lješkopolje vs Dečić — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mladost Lješkopolje vs Dečić