Dečić 2–2 Mladost Lješkopolje: Result & Stats

Dečić

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mladost Lješkopolje

M. Tuci 90+1'

I. Camaj 88' (pen)

A. Adrović 34' (pen)

A. Bajović 20'

12/5/2021

First League · Round 18Stadion Tuško Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dečić44%

×Draw28%

Mladost Lješkopolje28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DečićExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.99

Dečić

1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje

0.99

Dečić creates 34% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 50 away

1.41

creates per match

0.94

1.04

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dečić

1.41

Mladost Lješkopolje

0.94

allows per match

Dečić

1.04

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dečić or draw

72%

Dečić or Mladost Lješkopolje

72%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

56%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals

74%

Dečić 2+ goals

38%

Dečić 3+ goals

15%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

63%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

26%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)

61%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.04 · 108 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.41 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 0.94 + Dečić defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dečić scores more

44%

level

28%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

28%

Dečić at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Bajović

33'

M. Tuci

34'

A. AdrovićPenalty

44'

L. Maras

54'

M. Bozanovic

55'

A. Maraš← V. Janketić

68'

A. Jovanović← Ž. Popović

72'

V. Boljevic

83'

B. Pavičević← A. Rudović

88'

I. CamajPenalty

90+1'

A. Krivokapić← L. Maraš

90+1'

M. Tuci

Dečić

Mladost

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Radović

55'▲A. Maraš←▼V. Janketić

83'▲B. Pavičević←▼A. Rudović

Dečić substitutes

MarašPavičević

Manager: N. Vukčević

68'▲A. Jovanović←▼Ž. Popović

90+1'▲A. Krivokapić←▼L. Maraš

Mladost Lješkopolje substitutes

JovanovićKrivokapić

First League: Dečić 2–2 Mladost Lješkopolje

Dečić and Mladost Lješkopolje drew 2-2 in First League on December 5, 2021.

Goals: A. Bajović (20'), A. Adrović (34' pen), I. Camaj (88' pen), M. Tuci (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Tuško Polje in Tuzi.

Dečić vs Mladost Lješkopolje — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Dečić 2–2 Mladost Lješkopolje