Dečić 2–0 Mladost Lješkopolje: Result & Stats | Cup

Dečić

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mladost Lješkopolje

B. Cmiljanić 90+3'

A. Šofranac 3'

10/26/2022

Cup · Quarter-finalsTrening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dečić64%

×Draw20%

Mladost Lješkopolje16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DečićExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.91

Dečić

2.06

Mladost Lješkopolje

0.91

Dečić creates 126% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

0.81

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Dečić

1.38

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.00

allows per match

Dečić

0.81

Mladost Lješkopolje

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dečić or draw

84%

Dečić or Mladost Lješkopolje

80%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

36%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+

40%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals

87%

Dečić 2+ goals

61%

Dečić 3+ goals

34%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

60%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

23%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)

80%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 1.38 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.00 + Dečić defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dečić scores more

64%

level

20%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

16%

Dečić at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Šofranac

26'

B. Pavičević← A. Bajović

33'

V. Janketić← S. Denković

59'

Neto← V. Dapčević

59'

I. Ivanović← E. Habibović

59'

L. Maraš← M. Mirković

59'

N. Tripković← F. Janković

64'

B. Mrvaljević← N. Radusinović

70'

R. Đelaj← E. Vucaj

70'

D. Božović← I. Ivanović

70'

B. Cmiljanić← P. Lulgjuraj

90+3'

B. Cmiljanić

Dečić

Mladost

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Jandrić

26'▲B. Pavičević←▼A. Bajović

33'▲V. Janketić←▼S. Denković

70'▲R. Đelaj←▼E. Vucaj

70'▲D. Božović←▼I. Ivanović

70'▲B. Cmiljanić←▼P. Lulgjuraj

Dečić substitutes

PavičevićJanketićĐelajBožovićCmiljanić

Manager: S. Bubanja

59'▲Neto←▼V. Dapčević

59'▲I. Ivanović←▼E. Habibović

59'▲L. Maraš←▼M. Mirković

59'▲N. Tripković←▼F. Janković

64'▲B. Mrvaljević←▼N. Radusinović

Mladost Lješkopolje substitutes

NetoIvanovićMarašTripkovićMrvaljević