Mladost Doboj Kakanj 4–2 Čelik: Result & Stats

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Čelik

12/7/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 19MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj45%

×Draw25%

Čelik30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Doboj KakanjExpected goals in this matchČelik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.54

Čelik

1.22

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.52

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.00

Čelik

0.91

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.52

Čelik

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Čelik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw

70%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Čelik

75%

Draw or Čelik

55%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

22%

Čelik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

79%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

45%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

20%

Čelik 1+ goals

70%

Čelik 2+ goals

34%

Čelik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

60%

Čelik (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Čelik away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Čelik defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.54

Čelik attack 0.91 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

45%

level

25%

Čelik scores more

30%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff