Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Čelik vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
2 – 1
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
3/24/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik70%
×Draw19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
2.10
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.68

Čelik creates 209% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
89%
Čelik or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
81%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
30%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
45%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
88%
Čelik 2+ goals
62%
Čelik 3+ goals
35%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
49%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
15%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
87%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Čelik scores more
70%
level
19%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
11%

Čelik at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čelik vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Čelik beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.