Čelik 1–0 Mladost Doboj Kakanj: Result & Stats

Čelik

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

9/14/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 8Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Čelik46%

×Draw30%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ČelikExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.81

Čelik

1.23

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.81

Čelik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 28 away

0.64

creates per match

0.71

0.91

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Čelik

0.64

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.71

allows per match

Čelik

0.91

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Čelik or draw

76%

Čelik or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

70%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

54%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals

71%

Čelik 2+ goals

35%

Čelik 3+ goals

13%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

56%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

19%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)

65%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 0.64 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Čelik defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Čelik scores more

46%

level

30%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

24%

Čelik at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff