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ML Vitebsk vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — Premier League 2018

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
T. Ivanov 90'
A. Mesarovic 62'
N. Glushkov 57'
Z. Volkov 44', 11'
A. Denisyuk 32'
5/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Vitebsk CSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ML Vitebsk66%
×Draw20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
2.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.76

ML Vitebsk creates 163% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 68 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
1.91
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
0.77
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.09

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
87%
ML Vitebsk or FC Dnepr Mogilev
80%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
34%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
41%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
86%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
59%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
32%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
53%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
18%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
83%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.09 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 1.91 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.75 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
66%
level
20%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
13%

ML Vitebsk at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Z. Volkov↳ R. Lisakovich
31'
Zakhar Volkov
32'
A. Denisyuk
33'
Andrey Denisyuk
44'
Z. Volkov↳ R. Lisakovich
46'
A. Dunaev← N. Bylinkin
57'
N. Glushkov↳ A. Mesarovic
62'
A. Mesarovic↳ B. Diabate
63'
T. Martynov← K. Kirilenko
63'
K. Zabelin← R. Piletskiy
65'
N. Krasnov← S. Rusak
66'
N. Baranok← K. Gomanov
66'
V. Gromyko← A. Mesarovic
73'
S. Balanovich← Y. Skibskiy
73'
S. Nicholson← B. Diabate
74'
M. Litskevich← V. Harutyunyan
78'
T. Ivanov← A. Kontsevoy
90'
T. Ivanov↳ V. Gromyko

Statistics

MLFC
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Premier League: ML Vitebsk 5–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev

ML Vitebsk beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 5-1 in Premier League on May 10, 2026.

Goals: Z. Volkov (11', 44'), A. Denisyuk (32'), N. Glushkov (57'), A. Mesarovic (62'), T. Ivanov (90').

The match was played at Vitebsk CSK in Vitebsk.