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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk — 1. Division 2018

FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
10/29/20231. Division1. Division · Round 30Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev41%
×Draw23%
ML Vitebsk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.73
ML Vitebsk
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 45 away

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.06
ML Vitebsk
2.36

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.84
ML Vitebsk
1.40

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw
64%
FC Dnepr Mogilev or ML Vitebsk
77%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
59%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
21%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
82%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
52%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
25%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
80%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
47%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
54%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.06 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

ML Vitebsk attack 2.36 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
41%
level
23%
ML Vitebsk scores more
36%

FC Dnepr Mogilev at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Dnepr Mogilev will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Dnepr Mogilev vs ML Vitebsk

FC Dnepr Mogilev beat ML Vitebsk 2-1 in 1. Division on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Mogilev.