ML Vitebsk 4–1 FC Dnepr Mogilev: Result & Stats

ML Vitebsk

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2/4/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ML Vitebsk62%

×Draw18%

FC Dnepr Mogilev21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ML VitebskExpected goals in this matchFC Dnepr Mogilev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.56

ML Vitebsk

2.73

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.56

ML Vitebsk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.80

creates per match

2.33

0.80

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

ML Vitebsk

2.80

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2.33

allows per match

ML Vitebsk

0.80

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw

79%

ML Vitebsk or FC Dnepr Mogilev

82%

Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev

38%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

41%

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

93%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

75%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

50%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

79%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

46%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

75%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.80 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.33 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more

62%

level

18%

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

21%

ML Vitebsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff