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ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk — Premier League 2018

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
7/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Central City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

ML Vitebsk41%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Minsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
1.37
Dinamo Minsk
1.19

ML Vitebsk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 127 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
1.91
Dinamo Minsk
1.61

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
0.77
Dinamo Minsk
0.83

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Dinamo Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
67%
ML Vitebsk or Dinamo Minsk
73%
Draw or Dinamo Minsk
59%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
75%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
40%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
56%
Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Dinamo Minsk away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.83 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 1.91 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.61 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
41%
level
27%
Dinamo Minsk scores more
33%

ML Vitebsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ML Vitebsk vs Dinamo Minsk

ML Vitebsk beat Dinamo Minsk 2-0 in Premier League on July 3, 2025.

The match was played at Central City Stadium in Orsha.